Prices
August 2026 personal income and outlays report core PCE
Core inflation held steady at 3.0% annually while personal income and consumer spending rose modestly in August, according to the latest data from the
Latest Economy news
Labour market
UK gilt auction yield hits 5.383%, highest since 1999
The UK government paid its highest 10-year borrowing cost in 25 years at a £4.25bn bond sale, reflecting intense market pressure ahead of a critical
Prices
Australia's inflation hits 4% in August, RBA
Australia's annual inflation accelerated to 4% in August, driven by a 15% monthly surge in fuel prices, prompting the Reserve Bank to raise the cash rate
Prices
Trump's Greatest Economy Claim Clashes With Inflation
President Trump claims the U.S. Has its greatest economy ever, but data shows inflation rising, growth slowing, and most Americans viewing conditions as
Labour market
Labour's Healey pledges fiscal discipline
Chancellor John Healey outlined Labour's economic vision, stressing fiscal discipline as the foundation for job creation and reindustrialisation, but
Topics
The wire
- FiscalIPPR quantifies Brexit trade loss from missing EU mutual26 Sep 2026
- PricesUK consumer confidence rises for third month25 Sep 2026
- FiscalCBO Projects Debt Could Reach 222% of GDP by 205625 Sep 2026
- FiscalUS household income inequality fell in 202324 Sep 2026
- The FedAustralian unemployment rises to 4.6% ahead of expected RBA24 Sep 2026
- The FedGlobal Bond Sell-Off Deepens on Strong US Data and Rate24 Sep 2026
- FiscalOECD, IMF, IIF warn of rising debt and borrowing cost risks23 Sep 2026
- FiscalUK faces rising debt costs and growth23 Sep 2026
- FiscalMPs defend OBR against political attacks as 'shooting23 Sep 2026
- FiscalIMF chief warns rich nations must cut debt23 Sep 2026
Profiles
1981-82 Volcker Recession
Federal Reserve · Paul Volcker
1990-91 Recession
United States · 1990
1994 Bond Market Selloff
February 4, 1994 · January employment report
2011 Debt Ceiling Standoff
To pressure the U.S. government on fiscal... · 2011
2013 Taper Tantrum
U.S. Federal Reserve · Signal of future reduction in asset...
Data and guides
Features
Labour market
UK government borrowing hits £18.3bn
UK public sector borrowing reached £18.3bn in August, surpassing both market and official forecasts, increasing pressure on the chancellor ahead of next
The Fed
Fed Officials Project Higher Rates, Steady Jobless Rate
The Federal Reserve's latest economic projections show a higher path for interest rates and a stable unemployment rate through the end of the decade, with
Labour market
UK Consumer Confidence Hits Three-Year Low on Rate and Job
A key survey shows UK consumer sentiment fell to a three-year low in September, driven by fears of higher interest rates and job market insecurity, posing
Prices
Economist warns of financial crisis risks from oil and AI
Guardian columnist Larry Elliott highlights rising oil prices, bond market sell-offs, and AI industry warnings as potential triggers for a September
Fiscal
Bank of England to sell gilts directly to Treasury, pausing
The Bank of England plans to sell its government bonds directly to the Treasury, pausing its quantitative tightening program until a final decision in
Labour market
UK Retail Sales Unexpectedly Rise in August, Defying
Retail sales volumes in Great Britain increased by 0.5% in August, contrary to expectations of a fall. The Office for National Statistics reported the rise, which was supported by summer weather and back-to-school shopping.
The Fed
Bank of Japan raises interest rate to 1.25%, a 31-year high
The Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, in a split decision. Meanwhile, UK retail sales rose 0.9% in the three months to August, beating forecasts.
Prices
Bank of England holds rates at 3.75%, warns
The Bank of England held its main interest rate at 3.75% but signaled a likely increase if high energy prices persist, citing Middle East conflict impacts.
Prices
Bank of England to hold rates as UK inflation hits 3.1%
The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, diverging from the US Federal Reserve, despite UK inflation rising above 3% in
Prices
Bank of England to hold rates, slow bond
The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates at 3.75% today while slowing its bond-selling programme, as policymakers balance high inflation
Prices
UK Inflation Rises to 3.1% as Fuel Prices Soar
UK inflation increased to 3.1% in August, driven by soaring motor fuel costs, putting pressure on the Bank of England ahead of its interest rate decision.
Fiscal
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $88.6 Billion in July 2026
The U.S. Trade deficit in goods and services expanded sharply to $88.6 billion in July, a $17.4 billion increase from the revised June figure, driven by
Browse sections
Common questions
What does Output Gap follow?
The data release and the central bank decision it feeds into. Indicators is the release calendar, The Fed covers the policy side, and Labour market, Prices and Fiscal group the reporting by what the numbers describe.
Are the data series here yours?
No. Every figure comes from a statistical agency, a central bank release or a named publication reporting one, credited and linked in the piece. Nothing is modelled, seasonally adjusted or forecast on this site.
Do you predict rate decisions?
No. Output Gap reports what officials have said and what the released data showed, and any expectation quoted in a piece belongs to the bank or publication credited with it. There are no calls, targets or positions of our own.
Is any of this financial advice?
No. It is macroeconomic news reporting, and nothing on the site is a recommendation about any security, currency or asset. Decisions about your own money need a licensed adviser who knows your circumstances.
Why is the source credited instead of a writer?
Nobody is credited individually. Pieces are written with automated assistance from the source material, and the publication or agency behind them is named where an author would be.
How fresh is the front page?
In step with the release calendar, so data mornings are busy and the days between are quieter. New pieces appear as reporting lands rather than at a set hour.